Corollaries of Weather Dependent Electricity Generation

Germany’s political and societal goal is to replace all CO₂-emitting activities by clean processes. The intention is to achieve net-zero CO₂ emissions by 2045. This transition affects all sectors consuming final energy: mobility, heating, and key industrial processes. The strategy is to electrify these sectors and supply electricity exclusively from renewable sources, particularly wind and solar power. Given the short timeframe, the transition requires an immediate replacement of existing technologies rather than a gradual end-of-life substitution. This calls for a clear notion of future energy demand and supply. The extent to which there is consensus on the central demand and supply targets will be discussed. Since wind and solar power - the future workhorses of electricity generation - depend on weather conditions, the implications of diurnal, seasonal, and year-to-year variability will be examined. Specific weather anomalies such as „Dunkelflaute“ and “Hellbrise” will also be described and analysed. The central questions to be addressed include: Will there be sufficient electricity in 2030 and 2045 in terms of both variable and dispatchable power? In the event of supply gaps, can the European grid provide backup? Can short-term (diurnal) and seasonal storage be operated economically? Can sufficient hydrogen be produced domestically? And which factors will shape future spot-market electricity prices?